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Bill Godshall Update 2014-10-24

Tobacco Harm Reduction Update - October 24th, 2014


Smoking and Vaping Research, WHO, Social and Business, Business, Italy, FDA, CDC, Human Rights, US Election, Flavorings, Taxation, Vaping Bans, Advertising Regulations, Junk Science and Propaganda.

Smoking and Vaping Research

NSDUH finds 15% decline (from 6.6% to 5.6%) in 'past month' cigarette smoking by youth (ages 12-17) from 2012-2013, and a 43% decline (from 9.9% to 5.6%) from 2007-2013 (as sales of e-cigs skyrocketed), disproving false claims by CDC's Tom Frieden and others that e-cigs are gateways to cigarette smoking. Cigar use declined 46% (from 4.3% to 2.3%) from 2017-2013 (also in contrast to CDC claims).
(Figure 4.2 on page 49)

NSDUH finds 3.6% decline (from 22.1% to 21.3%) in 'past month' cigarette smoking by Americans aged 12 or older from 2012-2013, and a 12.3% decline (from 24.3% to 21.3%) from 2007-2013 (as e-cig sales skyrocketed), disproving claims that e-cigs renormalize smoking. Cigar use declined 9.6% (from 5.2% to 4.7%) from 2012-2013. (Figure 4.1 on page 47)

Brad Rodu - Federal survey data on tobacco: It's not about the children

Mike Siegel: New cohort survey study shows that intensive e-cigarette use greatly increases chances of quitting smoking (re: Biener/Hargraves e-cig survey)

Mike Siegel: New research suggests that anti smoking groups' propaganda about e-cigarettes' harms is causing tragic consequences (re: Biener/Hargraves e-cig survey)

2013/14 survey of Polish teens (ages 15-19) finds:
- cigarette smokers were times 28 times more likely than never smokers (57.4% vs 2%) to report 'past month' use of an e-cig,
- cigarette smokers accounted for 72.4% of 'past month' e-cig users,
- former smokers accounted 20.8% of 'past month' e-cig users,
- never smokers accounted for just 6.8% of 'past month' e-cig users (aka experimenters),
- 38% of participants reported 'past month' cigarette smoking, and
- 29.9% of participants reported 'past month' use of an e-cig.
But study authors failed to report (in their study and press release) the huge differences in 'past month' e-cig use between smokers and never smokers, and instead inappropriately compared the 2013/14 survey data (from schools with high smoking rates) to data from a 2010/11 survey (from schools with lower smoking rates) to falsely conclude and claim that smoking rates had sharply increased and that e-cigs weren't replacing cigarettes.
(press release)
The journal editors invited a commentary by FDA funded UCSF e-cig researchers who also misrepresented the study's findings (and many others), but whose Table 1 data (not cited in the published study or press release) revealed that the study actually found:
- smokers were 28 times more likely than never smokers to report 'past month' e-cig use, - never smokers accounted for just 6.8% of those reporting 'past month' e-cig users,
- just 2% of never smokers reporting 'past month' e-cig use, and that
- no survey has found >2% of never smokers reporting 'past month' e-cig use.
Importantly, the study's authors shared the most important survey data (that contradicted their conclusions, and that wasn't revealed in the study, in the press release, to peer reviewers, or to the journal's editor) with Dutra/Glantz.

Carl Phillips: Smoking trends don't show whether ecigs are 'working'.

Study finds 94% of e-cig videos on You Tube positively portrayed e-cigs compared to 2% negatively portraying e-cigs, and that pro e-cig videos were watched by more people and rated more favorably (indicating that You Tube posters and viewers know far more about e-cigs than Obama's DHHS, the WHO and Big Pharma shills); but the clueless or deceitful study's authors conclude 'It is critical to develop appropriate health campaigns to inform e-cigarette consumers of the potential harms associated with e-cigarette use.'

Planned e-cig usage study provokes battle of words


David Atherton: World Health Org's $20M, secret, taxpayer-funded meeting in Moscow could result in $33-a-pack cigarettes

WHO FCTC COP-6 report urges nations to protect cigarettes and threaten the lives of all vapers, smokers and secondhand smokers by inviting parties 'to consider prohibiting or regulating ENDS' (but not lethal cigarettes), by inviting parties 'to consider banning or restricting advertising, promotion and sponsorship of ENDS' and by requesting 'the Convention Secretariate to invite WHO to prepare an expert report' to once again repeat false and misleading claims about the scientific evidence for the WHO FCTC COP-7 meeting in India in 2016.

WHO FCTC COP-6 protects cigarettes and threatens lives of all smokers and secondhand smokers by falsely claiming that many non tobacco products widely used in SE Asia are smokeless tobacco products, by grossly exaggerating the negligible disease risks of smokeless tobacco products, by failing to acknowledge that smokeless tobacco products are exponentially less hazardous alternatives to cigarettes and have helped more than a million smokers quit by switching, by urging nations to consider banning 'the import, manufacture and sale' of smokeless tobacco products (but not cigarettes), and by urging nations to tax smokeless tobacco at the same rate as cigarettes.

WHO FCTC COP-6 issues report

Professor Gerry Stimson - Reaction to WHO FCTC position on e-cigarettes (ENDS)

Observers, press kicked out of United Nations Tobacco Conference in Moscow;
Observer Jeff Stier of National Center for Public Policy Research says secretive conference has now endorsed policies that will lead to more tobacco smoking

Social and Business

Vapercon 5 East taking place in Richmond, VA October 24/25 (>1,500 vapers expected)


Reynolds American reports 2.9% US cigarette volume decline for RJ Reynolds in 3Q14, 2.3% overall cigarette volume decline, and a 2.9% smokeless tobacco volume increase for American Snuff. Also reports 70,000 retailers sell RJ Reynolds Vapor Company's Vuse, and 8,000 retailers to sell Niconovum's ZONNIC nicotine gum by end of month.

Lorillard reports 2.1% US cigarette volume decline in 3Q14, 40% decline in blu eEig sales in US (from $63 million in 3Q13 to $38 million in 3Q14).

PMI reports .4% cigarette volume decline (i.e. 41.2 million pack decline) in 3Q14
Note that PMI reported the impact of e-cigs on cigarette markets in Italy and Poland.
'In Italy, the total cigarette market of 20.1 billion units decreased by 0.1%, mainly reflecting a lower incidence of e-vapor products and continued growth of the low-price segment.'
'In Poland, the total cigarette market of 11.3 billion units decreased by 10.8%, reflecting the prevalence of e-cigarettes, illicit trade and non-duty paid OTP products.'

ASCH - Reports from Big Tobacco: sales of cigarettes plummet. Why? They think it's because of 'vapor' competition.

Davidoff London removes tobacco brands in favour of Vapelux electronic cigarettes


E-cigarettes in regulatory doldrums; Godshall comments

Euroscientist interview: The view of Italian tobacco expert, Riccardo Polosa, on e-cigs policy


FDA: Anti-smoking drug Chantix linked to more than 500 suicides

Former e-cig prohibitionists Cobb and Abrams tout FDA deeming regulation (that would protect cigarettes by banning >99.9% of vapor products and by giving e-cig industry to Big Tobacco), while portraying themselves as researchers who want to help smokers quit smoking.

FDA to host webinar on October 29 at 2PM on Substantial Equivalence (SE) reports and recently issued final guidance on grandfathered tobacco products on the market 2/15/07

FDA issues SE snapshot


Michelle Malkin: CDC's mission creep

Human Rights

Clive Bates - Guest blog by Louise Ross: Whose health are we talking about?

US Election

Greg Conley: Help defeat New Mexico State Rep. Liz Thompson and strike a blow for vapers everywhere


Gil Ross: NYC Council's plan to protect cigarettes and kill smokers
Councilman Costa Constantinide's proposed ban is a smoke and mirrors show
(please note the NYC bill to ban flavored e-cigs is not on tomorrow's Council agenda)

Jeff Stier: NYT Council's new bill to boost smoking

Jacob Sullum: For public health, let them eat vape cake
E-cig flavors probably help people quit smoking (NYC)

Mike Siegel: New research suggests that banning e-cigarette flavors could have tragic consequences


Americans for Tax Reform and American Vaping Association send letter to Philadelphia City Council opposing the proposed tax on vapor products

Councilwoman proposes e-cigarette tax to help fund Philly schools (PA)

The market goes up in vapor (NV)

Vaping bans

San Mateo County (CA) Board of Supervisors bans smoking and vaping inside and outside of apartments and condos; Godshall comments.

Hawaii County (HI) Council considers banning vaping in workplaces, but not beaches; Godshall responds with comment

Hawaii bans vaping in 49 state owned buildings, Health Department Director Linda Rosen deceitfully claims "Based on various tests, vapors or aerosols emitted from e-cigarettes contain nicotine and other carcinogens and toxic chemicals that are just as harmful as those in secondhand smoke of regular combustible cigarettes," and:
"It's important that consumers be aware that e-cigarettes are not healthier than regular cigarettes, for users or those surrounding them."

Laguna Hills (CA) jumps on vaping ban wagon

Advertising Regulations

Correction: CAP guidelines do not ban showing of vapor products or the use of vapor products (as was stated in last week's THRU), but they ban advertisers from making the most important truthful claims about the products to encourage smokers to try them.

Junk Science and Propaganda

Junk study defending Chicago's unwarranted vaping ban and CDC funded CDPH's many false fearmongering claims about e-cigs deceitfully claims volunteer grassroots vaping activists were 'astroturfing' against the bill via twitter.
CDPH's many false and misleading fearmongering tweets about e-cigs

Carl Phillips: ANTZ try to redefine 'Astroturf' to mean 'anything they don't like'

FDA funded UCSF junk scientists call for Chinese to impose regulations banning truthful claims and most other e-cig marketing, repeat false fear mongering claims about e-cigs; published by prohibitionist Tobacco Control, whose editor also works at UCSF

- Bill Godshall

Godshall THRU 2014-10-24